Introduction
As we move into 2026, solar and battery system installers across Canada will need to manage a shifting cost landscape. After several years of solar module oversupply and battery manufacturing scale driving price declines, the market is shifting. Trade and tariff pressures, rising raw material costs, currency fluctuations, and the reduction/removal of export tax credits are expected to push both solar panel and battery prices higher in 2026.
Charge Solar knows that understanding why prices are changing, when those changes are expected, and their potential impact is essential for installers to make informed decisions around managing inventory risk and advising end-customers effectively.
Below we outline what we expect for solar module and battery price increases in 2026, including the key drivers, estimated timing, forecasted ranges, and strategic actions Canadian installers should consider.
What’s Driving Price Increases?
Global policy and export tax changes in China
Global solar and energy storage pricing inputs are largely defined by China’s extensive manufacturing ecosystem. In January 2026, the Chinese government announced changes to export tax rebate policies that will reduce and ultimately eliminate rebates for solar modules, solar cells, and battery products.
Summary Timeline:
- November 2024: Export tax rebate was reduced from 13% down to 9% on both solar modules and batteries.
- April 1, 2026: The rate on solar cells and modules will be reduced to 0%, and for batteries it will be adjusted down to 6%.
- January 1, 2027: The battery export tax rebate will also be reduced to zero.
These export rebates have functioned as a built in discount for overseas buyers. With these credits now significantly reduced on batteries and eliminated altogether on solar cells and modules, manufacturers are expected to adjust prices and pass the cost on to importers and distributors globally.
However, due to current Canadian import rules, almost all modules imported and sold domestically are made with Chinese-produced cells. As a result, the removal of these credits primarily influences the cell component of production, resulting in a more limited overall pricing impact on finished modules.
Raw material price pressures
Materials like polysilicon and silver – both critical inputs for PV modules – have experienced price consolidation, upward pressure, and reduced manufacturing capacity, adding costs further up the supply chain. Key battery raw materials, such as lithium, have seen renewed demand and price volatility, partly due to surging energy storage adoption, resulting in tighter supply and upward pressure on material costs.
When are Increases Likely to Hit?
While we know that price increases for solar modules and batteries are on the horizon, the exact timing remains difficult to predict. Much of the variance depends on individual manufacturers, their pricing strategies, and how and when they plan to implement changes.
Supply chain structures also play a major role. Companies such as LONGi or JA Solar, with vertically integrated operations, may be able to delay, soften, or smooth the rollout of price adjustments. Manufacturers relying heavily on spot market purchasing may face cost increases sooner, or even immediately. These variables mean the timing of price increases will likely differ across manufacturers and market segments.
How Much Could Prices Rise?
The projections below reflect our most informed view today; however, the exact impact will remain uncertain until it is formally clarified. Based on current industry feedback and subject-matter expert commentary, here is what we anticipate.
Batteries
- A modest increase (~3%) following April 1 reduction in export incentives.
- A further upward step (~5–8%) as the final rebate phase-out completes in early 2027.
Across the full year, combined effects of tariff policy and raw material costs could meaningfully raise the landed cost of battery packs and storage systems relative to late 2025.
Solar Modules
Popular sentiment amongst industry experts suggests solar module pricing could increase by mid-year from the mid-single digits up to the low double digits (e.g., ~5–15%) relative to late 2025 levels as the rebate removal and other inputs impact costs.
This represents a material shift from recent years of near-continuous declines and should be factored into budget forecasts and proposal planning for 2026.
What Should Installers Do?
- Don’t Panic. While price increases are inevitable, there are often shifts before official pricing announcements are released and it typically takes some time to work through the supply chain with full effect. Even though some manufacturers have been immediately impacted, there is still time to plan, adjust, and prepare.
- Plan inventory purchase and pricing adjustments with the mid-year price shift in mind. Securing modules pre-price increase where possible can reduce exposure to higher post price increase costs and provide cost certainty for, at least a portion of your project order book.
- Shorten quote validity windows. With costs becoming less predictable, and reversing the multi-year deflationary trend, keeping quote validity timelines shorter reduces risk of project profitability erosion.
- Include price protection clauses (where possible). Communicate with customers that material pricing is volatile and make them aware of quote timing validity so they understand why price adjustments may be reflected in proposals based on their decision timing.
- Continue to monitor the situation and engage with your Account Manager. Charge Solar will continue to communicate updates and developments on pricing as more details are made available and provide clarity to our customers
Conclusion
After several years of steady price declines, 2026 is shaping up to be a transition year for solar in Canada. Rising material inputs and manufacturing costs will place upward pressure on both solar modules and battery energy storage solutions. For installers, this environment creates both challenges and opportunities.
Charge Solar can help you stay ahead of the curve. Our team continuously monitors global market trends, works closely with leading manufacturers, and maintains strong supply chain visibility. As we did with the expiration of the Canada Greener Homes Loan, Charge provides early insight into potential price changes, guidance on product availability, and practical recommendations to help mitigate impacts to your business operations as the market shifts. By leaning on our expertise, you can reduce uncertainty, secure reliable supply, and keep your projects moving with confidence.
Rob Milliken
VP Business Development
Charge Solar
